http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/ Actual investment advices at the Ukraine investment market from financial analysts. Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5860.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5860.html Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам? Mon, 12 Sep 2011 11:38:11 +0300 Оказывается, все дело в том, какие методы исследований вы исповедуете. Теоретики, окончившие престижные западные университеты, далее в процессе работы используют дедуктивные методы, то есть делают выводы, исходя из постулатов и законов некоторой общепринятой теории, т.е. от общего к частному. В противоположность им, практики ежедневно "сидят в рынке», но на теории не могут заработать денег. Они придумывают невероятные логические цепочки рассуждений, наблюдают за различными разрозненными явлениями и пробуют по ним построить целостную картину рынка. Такой подход к формированию умозаключений называется индуктивным, т.е. когда мы из отдельных наблюдений, кусочков информации пробуем сформировать общий вывод. Давайте станем посередине между теоретиками и практиками и проанализируем, что произошло за последнюю неделю на фондовых рынках мира. Какие основные новости повлияли на поведение рынков? Что нам ожидать в краткосрочном и долгосрочном будущем? Какую стратегию инвестирования следует выбрать? Не просто инвесторам принимать решения в условиях столь высокой волатильности. Согласно дедуктивной системы умозаключений, нужно выбрать одну из фундаментальных моделей оценки капитальных активов, построенная гипотезе эффективности рынка. То есть, мы не можем определить в данный момент времени направление движения фондового рынка и отдельных акций, а можем только управлять портфелем, балансируя между риском и доходностью. Такой подход к инвестированию признан в научном мире наиболее рациональным и рекомендованным для непрофессиональных инвесторов. Исследования показали, что за последние 30 лет стратегия оптимальной диверсификации, каторою разработал еще Гарри Марковиц надежно работала, оправдывая ожидания инвесторов. За один месяц произошло падение немецкого фондового индекса DAX примерно на 13%, американский S & P500 и британский FTSE100 индексы пережили головокружительные колебания + / -5% в течение некоторых дней месяца, в частности, и в прошлой неделе. В нашей компании P & S мы разработали несколько стратегий глобальной оптимизации, основанной на фундаментальных финансовых законах. И внимательно следим за их результативностью, то есть они находятся в тестовом режиме. Мы можем уверенно сказать, что последние полгода такие стратегии уже не оправдывают себя, их результативность является даже ниже доходности базовых американских индексов S & P500 и Dow Jones Industrial Average. Это значит, что мы вступаем в новую эпоху, когда ломаются старые устоявшиеся законы рыночной экономики, а новые - нам еще надо отыскать. Индуктивными методами, конечно. Эти индуктивные методы основываются на логическом использовании доступной и ожидаемой информации. На прошлой неделе рынки ожидали решения немецкого конституционного суда о правомерности предоставления финансовой помощи Германии странам Еврозоны. Иск подали ведущие шесть экономистов Германии. Суд признал это решение правомерным, но при условии согласования этих действий с парламентом. Европейские рынки отреагировали на это решение с облегчением и выросли на 3,5% -5%. Вслед за европейскими выросли и американские индексы на 3% -4%. Сегодня правительство Германии дало понять Греции, своих обязательств по уменьшению дефицита бюджета нужно соблюдать, иначе - помощи не видеть. А это значит - прямая дорога к греческому дефолта уже на этой неделе. И начинается эффект домино, социальные недовольства, и еврозона разваливается, как домик с карт. Министр финансов США Тимоти Гейтнер сказал, что как раз сейчас Европа имеет возможность показать свое политическое единство и решительность в действиях. В противном случае мы будем свидетелями сначала падение европейской валюты, а затем и развала самого Евросоюза. И не исключено, что первым из него выйдет самый сильный игрок - Германия. Вторым важным событием недели является объявление Бараком Обамой плана преодоления безработицы в США в четверг поздно вечером. Однако ожидания экспертов оказались верными - ничего нового мы не услышали. Будет разыгрываться карта уменьшения налоговой нагрузки для людей с малыми доходами, увеличение социальных выплат при потере работы, государственные инвестиции в инфраструктурные проекты. При этом советники президента будут следовать стандартной макроэкономической логике - увеличение доходов населения за счет уменьшения налогов, рост занятости населения за счет получения новых рабочих мест от запуска новых инфраструктурных проектов увеличат потребление и расходы населения, а это на втором круге позволит фирмам создать новые рабочие места и маховик экономики США закружится.Однако оппоненты в Конгрессе по республиканской партии не дадут Обаме осуществить этот план в полной мере, аргументируя тем, что уже в экономику страны «влито» беспрецедентную сумму, а сдвигов никаких нет. Уровень безработицы является чрезвычайно высоким - 9,1%. То есть, опять видим, что дедуктивные методы убеждения, которые строятся на классических макроэкономических моделях не срабатывают. Что же делать? Осторожно ставить на падение мировой экономики, надежно защищая свои инвестиционные портфели пут опционами на ведущие мировые индексы. Такая стратегия себя хорошо оправдала в течение последнего месяца. Как правильно подобрать количество пут опционов, их забастовки, время для выполнения и т.п. заслуживает темы отдельного разговора. Но и нужно вовремя будет выйти из этой игры. Все пройдет, как в известной свадебной забаве: играет музыка, останавливается и кто остается без стула. Всем желаю внимательно следить за своим стулом и вовремя выйти из игры, чтобы понежиться в тихой  гавани отдыха, наблюдая за неистовыми бурями финансового мира! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5754.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5754.html Последние события на мировых фондовых рынках заставили задуматься, как близко мы стоим к краю мировой экономической пропасти. События 11 марта 2011 года, 4 августа 2011 уверенно указывают на то, что депрессивное десятилетия начала третьего тысячелетия будет иметь еще более депрессивное продолжение. Движется ли мир в хорошем направлении во всех смыслах слова «добрый»? Может долго держаться макияж, если наносить один слой пудры за другим? Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:16:02 +0300 Так и в мировой экономике: США «прикрылись» решением о новом потолке долговых обязательств, и рынки успокоились. Европейский Центральный банк выкупил часть долговых обязательств проблемных европейских стран, и снова покой. На несколько месяцев ... Окажет МВФ очередной транш в 1,5 млрд. долларов Украине, и еще 6 месяцев можно жить спокойно. Два предупреждения от глобальных рынков мы получили в этом году. Третье - может быть фатальным! Я не фаталист. Но делать что-то надо. Помните байку о двух лягушках, попавших в банки с молоком. Лягушка, которая постоянно работала лапками, сбила сметанку, а потом и масло образовалось. Она спаслась, а лягушка, которая опустила лапки - не спаслась. Где же искать спасения?  Томас Фридман, обозреватель New York Times пишет в открытом письме Барака Обамы: «Из миллионов американских детей нам нужно получить не просто гениев, а людей, которых волнуют инновации и предпринимательство.Нам нужно больше Jobs, Steve Jobs, Jobs, Jobs ». Т. Фридман убежден, если мы хотим снизить уровень безработицы, то ни одна экономическая программа QE ни очередное спасение инвестиционного банка не поможет. Нужно быстро увеличивать количество стартапов. А для этого нужны умные, талантливые и вдохновенные молодые люди, что, умело рискуя, возьмут на себя ответственность.  В одном из городков штата Калифорния, Пасо-Роблес, при входе на известный винный завод лежат камни из известняка, взятые из местного грунта. Оказывается, чтобы выжить в каменном грунте, корням винограда приходится прилагать значительные усилия, чтобы добраться до воды. В результате виноград обладает более насыщенным вкусом, откуда и берет свое начало замечательное вино.Те же силы, действующие на корни винограда и действуют на молодых предприимчивых людей, столкнувшихся с безжалостным рынком труда. Не нужно пенять на среду. Нужно его менять своим вдохновенным трудом, следуя основным принципам вдохновенного инноватора Стива Джобса:  Делайте то, что любите Оставьте след во Вселенной Дайте импульс своему мозгу Продавайте мечты, а не продукты Ничего лишнего, простота - это самая гениальность! Создайте золотой стандарт работы с клиентами Волнуйте людей, рассказывайте истории Гениальные рецепты успеха - очень простые:  Смело слушайтесь своего сердца и интуиции. Они каким-то образом уже знают, кем вы хотите стать. Стив Джобс. Следуйте за своим счастьем и Вселенная откроет вам двери даже там, где были только стены. Джозеф Кэмпбелл «Сила мифа». Чтобы конкурировать в мировой экономикой знаний, где вознаграждаются инновации и изобретательность, нужно научиться думать иначе в подходе к образованию и к выбору профессии. Как вы думаете, почему Стив Джобс оставил на первом году обучения престижный колледж? Почему Билл Гейтс оставил Гарвард? Да потому, что современные университеты не учат творчеству. Если хочешь научиться плавать, то прыгай в воду. Если хочешь научиться творить, тогда твори. Так поступают мировые лидеры. Начните мечтать ... Воображение - это начало творчества. Вы представляете то, что хотите, вы хотите то, что представляете, и наконец, вы создаете то, что хотите Джордж Бернард Шоу Можно мечтать, творить, строить лучшее место в мире, но чтобы сделать мечту реальностью, нужны люди.  Уолт Дисней Нужно ставить перед собой большие цели. Происходит эффект Пигмалеону: что большие надежды, тем лучше они самореализуются. Слабая идея порождает слабые усилия. Наиболее ценным продуктом для людей является впечатление, надежда, идея. Идея должна быть конкретная и лаконичная (до 10 слов). Идея начинается в нас самих. Позвольте себе мечтать в больших масштабах. Дайте импульс своему мозгу. Кто такие творческие люди? «Это - люди, способные связывать между собой несвязанные  вещи. Что более разнообразны наши знания и опыт, тем больше связей может образовывать мозг. Свежая информация инициирует новые ассоциации, у некоторых это приводит к возникновению новых идей », - говорит Стив Джобс. К жизни нужно относиться так, как делают маленькие дети - с любопытством, с удивлением, с необходимостью усваивать то новое. Не спрашивайте потребителей, чего они хотят. «Если бы я спросил своих клиентов, чего они хотели, то получил бы ответ: «Очень быстрого коня », говорил Генри Форд.  Идите и творите. Мир не кончается на Украине. Дайте возможность вашим идеям реализоваться. Позвольте вашей идеи поднимать вас в шесть утра и работать до поздней ночи. Это - не только рецепт персонального успеха, но и секрет успеха для всей страны.  Гениальных вам идей! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5728.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5728.html Нечто совершенно новое происходит в финансовом мире. Инвесторы перестали реагировать на сообщения председателей центробанков. Монетарная политика уже не может преодолеть высокий уровень безработицы. Из различных источников поступает информация, что инвесторы предпочитают сидеть в наличных, чем входить в рынок акций. Потенциал снижения рейтингов долговых обязательств европейских стран также не дает спокойно спать крупным инвесторам, а еще больше - глобальным инвестиционным фондам. Как генерировать инвестиционный доход? Thu, 11 Aug 2011 18:51:35 +0300 Алан Синаи, экономист Decision Economics Inc., говорит: "Происходит нечто совершенно новое и неизвестное нам. Ни монетарная ни фискальная политика не дают нам подсказки, что делать, как это было традиционно. Домохозяйства изменили традиционный образ расходов на потребление ". ФРС сейчас ориентируется в основном на показатели обзора Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan относительно ожиданий будущих доходов потребителей. А они - совсем неутешительны.Большинство потребителей не видит признаков никакого роста доходов на ближайший час.Таких плохих показателей не было за последние 30 месяцев. К большому сожалению, не видно, что может улучшить макро показатели американской экономики в ближайшее время. Важно помнить, что возможно мы приближаемся к моменту бифуркации, когда обратного хода рынков не будет. Финансовую систему нужно будет поднимать из руин.Опытные аналитики рекомендуют утром проговаривать мантру: «Вторая волна рецессии может произойти» и повторять ее английским « The Second Wave of Recession May Be Happening », чтобы уберечь свой инвестиционный капитал от чрезмерного падения. Просматривая мировые экономические бестселлеры фокусуюсь во мнении - наиболее стабильные экономики - это экономики таких стран: Швейцарии, Канады и Австралии. Авторы основном советуют диверсифицировать свои сбережения именно в валютах этих стран, сочетать с золотом и избегать рискованного рынка акций. Я решил прогнать такой портфель, чтобы проверить его инвестиционную привлекательность. Мы видим, что доходность такого золото-валютного портфеля в разы превышает доходность индекса S & P500. Приведу также композицию этого портфеля: Вложив 100 000 долларов в такую ​​стратегию, инвестор за год «с хвостиком» смог бы заработать 23 000 чистой прибыли. Так что пассивные золотовалютные стратегии в современном мире могут быть также высокодоходными! Наличные обладают еще одним замечательным свойством - высокой ликвидностью, т.е. возможностью превратить их в любой финансовый инструмент или товар. Этого нельзя сказать о всех других финансовых инструментах. Еще одно большое падение фондовых рынков мира и начнутся проблемы с долговыми обязательствами крупных мировых корпораций, начнется новая волна падений на рынках недвижимости. Тогда и инвесторы, сейчас сидят на спекулятивных деньгах, и смогут заработать невиданные прибыли и получить новые возможности: две квартиры по цене одной, гражданство одной из европейских стран, престижное авто с 50% дисконтом и т.п. Наступили теперь времена, когда тот, кто не рискует, может пить хорошо шампанское! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5213.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/5213.html Украинский информационный фон: правительство планирует завершить кризис в Украине в середине 2012 года, максимум до 2022 года Украина войдет в Европейский Союз, раскручивается маховик строительства нового жилья, чтобы в июле – декабре выйти на докризисные показатели, и реализации инфраструктурных проектов . Fri, 01 Apr 2011 14:45:35 +0300 И, вообще, рекомендую много смеяться. По крайней мере этим вы не навредите экономике Украины, настроение себе и другим поднимете. Читайте произведения умных и опытных людей. Оттуда пробивается истина. Выключите телеканалы, закройте глянцевые журналы, посмотрите вокруг … и смейтесь … Когда уже не осталось силы ни плакать, ни смеяться, юмор пробивается сквозь слезы. Карл Краус О серьезных вещах всегда лучше говорить шутя. Вильгейм Буш Єсть умные книги, которые на 600 страницах содержат столько же информации, сколько можно извлечь из хорошего анекдота. Станислав Ежи Лец Єсть люди, которые утверждают, что все, что делается с серьезным видом, есть умным Георг Кристоф Лихтенберг Американцы всегда принимают правильные решения, но после того, как испробуют все неправильные. Уинстон Черчиль Давайте больше смеяться, потому что реально есть над чем. Чтобы вы не делали – смейтесь. Это рекомендует известный бизнес-консультант по ведению переговоров и медиации Эд Ватцке в своей новой книге «Вполне возможно эта история не имеет к вам никакого отношения …». Но, поверьте, имеет и к каждому. Автор находит лаконичные ответы на большое количество вопросов, какие мы часто себе задаем. В частности, он делится с нами следующими открытиями. Что такое бизнес? Бизнес предоставляет нам возможность в течение бесконечных разговоров решить проблемы, каких бы у нас не было, если бы мы не занимались бизнесом. Кстати, это самое относится к бракосочетанию. Что женщины в действительности хотят от мужчин? Женщины всегда хотят «Больше». Деловой партнер говорит товарищу: «У тебя растут рога, пора уже что-то решать. Все над тобой смеются». «Это еще как посмотреть. Лучше я буду на 50% в хорошем деле, чем на 100% - в плохом». Что такое деловая этика? В вашем магазине клиент ошибочно заплатил за товар на 100 долларов больше. Продавец, который только что прошел тренинг по деловой этике, бежит к менеджеру, сообщает о случае и просит совета, как действовать в рамках деловой этики. Менеджер поучительным тоном говорит: «Деловая этика не заключается в том, чтобы отдать клиенту 100 долларов, а в том - или мне поделиться 100 долларами с тобой, или все забрать себе!» Желаю вам быть на 100% в хороших делах! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/3877.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/thoughts/3877.html I always thought about what makes people successful? What is success? I know many talented people who could not realize themselves, and is not appreciated by society. Then their emotional dissatisfaction results leads to an intellectual "stop". Modern research on neurobiology indicate that decision-making emotions play a bigger role than logic ones. Thu, 24 Jun 2010 14:15:27 +0300 Using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), scientists have identified brain areas that are responsible for our emotions, rationality, morality, that makes us capable of learning, provides job satisfaction. Our brain creates the experience itself under various internal processes that occur there. And because everyone lives in his mental world, which he builds for himself. All around are their own picture of the world, and therefore our actions towards them not always to lead to the desired result. Reading a lot of modern research in effective business decisions, I have concluded that their unifying idea is that logic means confirming those findings that we have done at a subconscious level. It is known as the process of solving complex scientific or practical problems separated into two phases: analysis and synthesis. Analysis lies in the range of complex problems easier, and synthesis - an association of simple solutions of problems in resolving the original problem. The logic is responsible for analysis, but our emotions and intuition - for synthesis. So, depending on the goals we must skillfully use these functions of our brain to achieve and enjoy our activities. Home hypothesis of modern scientific thought is that we can see an objective picture of the world. On the other hand, neurobiology argues that all our knowledge about the world - it is our personal version of the world. This paradigm defines our way of thinking and decision making. Although the paradigm is stable entities in the brain of people, but they also suffer "quantum" changes in the evolution of humanity. The classic example of such transformation paradigms of thinking can be considered a transformation of human knowledge about the structure of the universe in the Renaissance. By the sixteenth century. common and scientific knowledge was thought that the Earth is the center of the universe, and all the rest of the Sun and planets move around it. First, the theory has seen a large number of amendments to explain planetary motion deviation from the planned trajectories. And then the old paradigm was completely destroyed by Nicholas Copernicus, who put in the center of the universe sun. Perhaps with the recent discoveries of neurobiology is time to change our paradigm of thinking, making decisions on consumption, investment etc.. This will revolutionize our understanding of the world in which we live, change the human value system aimed at total selfishness and competition in the business environment. They say that when Aristotle looked at the human brain, he thought that it was a device for cooling the blood. But now you know exactly which areas of the brain responsible for processing various data coming from the bodies of feelings for the accumulation of information, memories, higher mental activity, etc., the whole reminding your computer. However, unlike the computer brain amygdala produces feelings that can change the shade and cognitive brain operations. Opinion is not placed in a cell, but in the relationship between  the cells. Electric charge reaches the end of the neuron, releasing chemicals (neurotransmitters) that move along the groove (synapse), filled with fluid, to the next neuron that receives the signal. Chemical composition synapse explains why repetition is so important to master the skills, habits and forces a precondition for certain stereotypes. A variety of external stimuli leads to the formation of new neural networks that expand our thinking. It turns out that the idea of a higher level (deep values and judgments) define the idea of lower levels. Therefore, changes to higher levels of neural networks are more resilient and holistic than changes at lower levels. Therefore, cognitive therapy, aimed at changing the mentality is more effective than medical methods designed to influence synapse, or methods to alter behavior, particularly carrot and stick. Speaking just from a practical point of view, if we select the correct main idea, all other processes of thinking agree with this idea, andwe will achieve a successful result. Our thinking - is our reality in the film adaptation of the same literary work. The trouble is that we do not know what this work. And even deeper question: is it working? Our movies should have an internal meaning for us. To do this, common sense plays a function of human internal editing that picture. Thus emerging paradigm of thinking that lead to various political, social, scientific and religious views. To these different paradigms can be kept in our brain long enough, you start thinking processes that they would constantly "opening" and "purifing". This is achieved through telling stories about themselves, relatives, business partners, customers ... that is history - a way of keeping our previous experience that sets the direction for the logical development of ideas. That's why so many ideological modes worked Nazi Germany and Communist Soviet Union, telling stories that change the paradigm of innate humanistic thinking people. The last two millennium mankind in many training set logical thinking that is just the final stage of making a decision. But thinking logically precedes intuition, thinking paradigm, based on world history and personal experience. Therefore it is very important to understand that history is the most viable to promote creativity, enhance the pleasure of life. Examples of such stable, inspiring life stories is a world religion. Each of these religions operating life stories of leaders as "God's commandments" or rules to serve only a brief summary. Is difficult to understand the new rules, because it lets them through logical thinking. Man tries to one-dimensional projection through the paradigm of thinking to resume its multi (infinite-dimensional) original. And do it for untrained brain can be very difficult. And here come to the aid of history, transmitted from mouth to mouth with minor modifications and interpretations of their speakers. Thus appears the history that allows people to have common views on various projection paradigm. I think it's time to write new history for mankind, which would integrate a portion of existing paradigms, and the other would give mankind. In particular, it could relate to the modern paradigm of economic thinking, which is a separate projection of ulitarism of modern world. Imagine that the "new economy" is trying to maximize its consumption, but rather to restrain it daily, getting pleasure from the "lengthening" of neural networks in our heads, going from the lowest to the highest levels of consciousness? These new paradigms have completely changed the way the world economy, world stock markets, was to total revaluation of different assets. Once such views have long come to mind to many thinkers of the world, then perhaps we are on the way. Life - is the only functioning system of interconnected vessels. So let's not take on the financial losses that are only signal that should look at the growth in our other "vessels". (Based on books by Charles Jacobs Neuromanagement, Management Rewired: Why Feedback Doesn't Work and Other Supervisory Lessons From The Latest Brain Science) Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/3758.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/3758.html Headlines of the week: Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, budget deficit threatening situations, the Ukrainian stock market was reflected to "bottom", but promised to get back, increasing excise duties on alcohol, tobacco, mineral water, tax war with the "alien" business for budget revenues Mon, 31 May 2010 10:17:33 +0300 Year 2010 and especially the beginning of May will be remembered for all investors by its unpredictable "dodge": drop the index S & P 500 minutes May 6 by 10-15%, resulting in reduction of its capitalization to $ 1 trillion, falling Ukrainian Stock Market 50% -60% for no apparent reasons for this. All has become hostage of a small Greek financial turbulence that has long  lived according to their financial capabilities. But it is not just Greece, but also many other Old World countries that have not already seen social upheaval. Their lives have long moved beyond the usual posibilities. It resembled a full sea are calm and it was unclear that provides a force inflame Europe soon. But this force was found - no money. When you do not have what to eat, you begin to think more effectively! They started to cut budget, and here social discontent. If you has not worked for some period of time, then coming back to work gets very hard. Than you begin to think about social injustice. Salary - this is sacred, especially budgeting one. Europe will reap the benefits from losing its competitive ability. In my opinion, the United States lifted long ago by its scientific and technical potential and created all conditions for business development from the rest of the world. Therefore, I believe, that Europe will not come out of the crisis quicly, we will see  another wave of social upheaval in Europe. It certainly will affect the cash flows from exports of Ukrainian industry. It is clear that under such circumstances Ukrainian hryvnia will not long hold at 8 USD. per dollar. Typically, a change in the dollar with respect to the current rate in the second half of August, while the scorching sun in the summer holidays, people will lose vigilance for a moment, and then the currency depreciation will apear. I do not want to be evil oracle, but the air begins to smell roasted. In this situation, loans from the IMF we will not see for a long time, but for old time will come, pay. "And we will take the money?" - Says the popular cartoon hero. "Borrow from neighbors!" And if your neighbor has problems? "Sell something unusefull! A little left to sell, and not the fact that someone needed it. Remains - to sell yourself. But in Europe and its citizens have nothing to take the unemployment rate reaches 10%. Exit the circle can only because of their unique skills when you can do what others can not. Here we need to find the source of his success. We need to change the system structure of our country,and begin to reform our education system. Diplomas of our universities are "fig leaf" covering our ignorance and lack of qualification even average international standards of education. We lie ourselves while passing the final examinations at school, where parents often handouts for teachers and school administration completely gray pupils are native gold medals and good government awards as gifted children can not break through to "the elite" university faculties. The company has not even started an open dialogue on this painful topic. We are accustomed to years of telephone rights, stronger is the one who is in power. Until we stop dividing people in Ukraine by its strange color depending on the power, and until we will not understand our unique values, and until we will not not reform state government in practice, and until we will not stop practicing the total populism, we should not expect any improvements in the life of country. We still keep holding to portfolio mix of 10% - UAH, 40% - dollar, 20% - euro, 30% - gold (bar and paper). Now is an opportune time to place 50% of your investment capital in investment funds or directly become Ukraine's stock market investor, entrusting their money professional analysts in the field of investment management. Remember: you relax and your money is working. Take care. they work effectively. Happy summer holidays to you and your money - success! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/3553.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/3553.html Headlines of the week: an irreparable loss of the Polish people, the Ukrainian stock market is eager to achieve its pre-crisis indicators, Ukraine has gave up its last batch of highly enriched uranium, consideration of 2010 budget, the Western stock markets are soaring on the symptoms of the financial crisis endind. Thu, 15 Apr 2010 14:06:30 +0300 As we know, there are two versions of "Swan Lake" by Tchaikovsky - author and Ricardo Drigo versions. Let me briefly recall the plot of the ballet. The Prince celebrates great party to choose a bride among those invited to the ball . Among them, there is one grace and beauty girl-swan, but she is charmed by evil sorcerer, black kite. Dispel his charm can only that one who recognizes the Swan Princess as eternal love, or someone who will be able to price their own lives to defeat the sorcerer. Prince promises the girl that she would be his girl-friend. However, magician substitutes her with another girl similar to the Swan Princess. The Prince publicly vows of love. The words of oath are said, nothing can be chaned. Prince is trying to beg forgiveness of the beautiful swan, decides to liberate his beloved and stay on the bottom of the lake along with the deposed magician. There are two variants of the final ballet: 1) (original) Prince takes fight with the enemy, but he throws him into a lake; the girl-friend stays with the prince, and evil is overcomed; 2) (Ricardo`s Drigo version) Prince fights with a wizard, to help prince girl-swan overcomes the wizard and the couple wins. Such story is described in the ballet, but in real life the story could happen quite differently: a young boy could like the purpose, and a beautiful girl, that is a white swan would remain forever with the wizard. I do not  continue to draw parallels about the handsome prince and a young beauty, political roads, that lead not to the same way. But who is this evil genius that fascinates our beauties and that makes the princes` mind supid? How many years Ukraine will suffer from the actions of our politicians? The latest news about the Ukraine`s refusal of the latest installment of highly enriched uranium, which Viktor Yanukovych claimed during the meeting with Barack Obama in Washington, was perceived  by the world community and within Ukraine quite differently. "For a long period of time, this second largest country in Europe after Russia, held on to this security guarantee in order to frighten the aggressor. And now made a gift ... "- Wrote the German newspaper Die Welt. Here are the comments of the Ukrainian opposition to A. Turchinov: "Take away from Ukraine highly enriched uranium - is, in fact, to put an end to scientific developments in this direction. It's too high price for 5 minutes of conversation with Obama because of the United States, which always defend democracy throughout the world, turning a blind eye to the fact that we have unconstitutionally created a majority. I have a very unpleasant feeling that Ukraine is humiliated ...». Unfortunately Turchinov is rights. Ukraine is humiliated at every step in international politics. But this "merit" is not only the current of government and all governments and presidents who ruled the country. Essentially, nothing changes, Ukrainian government - is only mean for the public property, that, during the period of government, can be interpreted as his own. We are looking for effective governance mechanisms, and look around. Ask the bankers, who holds the most savings in banks. Go through neighborhoods of large cities and ask the people who are the owners of these castles? Whose accounts in Western banks are concentrated in major resources? Yes, it is in the Ukrainian "elite", but not in businessmen or scientists, athletes or artists, and government officials, MPs, judges, prosecutors,all "solved." And do not say that this has happened with the advent of the new government. So it was, so it is... We have what we have. Life goes on and you want to enjoy it. I liked the Igor Umansky interview , former Acting Minister of Finance in Ukraine (www.epravda.com.ua). Here are some abstracts: Every month until the 25 th we gave the Pension Fund loan, and after 25 they tell us they are not returned. Pension Fund and Naftogaz - it is the time bomb tha is ticking for the budget. While speaking about the process of restructuring of debts of Naftogaz, I do not understand how it all rested. When we has gone, Prime said: "... I do not understand how all this has not collapsed." Frankly, the president, parliament and National Bank worked on defaulted economy. Of course, it was possible to recognize publicly the 2009 budget deficit of 40 billion USD. Folded arms, and slowly crawl to the cemetery. Where's the money? All figures and all the analysis - the World Bank, the IMF. We have nothing from them to hide. (???) System error was because of the deficit of the Pension Fund that was not included in the budget. If we compare the increase of the liabilities of the Pension Fund, the amount of wages and GDP growth from 2002 to 2009 - dynamics is quite different. The main problem is that there are 6 different prices for gas. Assume that the company uses natural gas as a public company and pays him 560 USD, and you pay for gas as an industrial plant - 2600 UAH. You agree with the supplier, and he draws gas public utility company at a price 5 times lower ... For example, chemists. Must be stored in the logic of benefits. ... If a company produces fertilizers for Ukrainian households, and will not sell it abroad. Why encourage them, if they are in Africa, then take out fertilizer? Consider the idea of monetization - is absolutely correct in terms of budget. When a state transfer benefits in money, then it needs to be honest, ... that they are much smaller. National Bank during the first week after the change of government has issued nearly 4.5 billion hryvnia. If properly consider the budget, then we obtain more than 170 bln. additional costs for the introduction of the law on social standards. ... Total released 210 billion UAH. Let's calculate. 4,2 million of such people. If you raise their pay at least ... up to 200 USD, we will have almost a billion to the pension fund every month. In my opinion, everything becomes clear, where we're rolling. And against the background of the delivery of highly enriched uranium is as a forced move, as well as transformation of the IMF credit line in the new line until 2012. Otherwise, the Euro 2012 is at risk. Everything can be understandable, but why do any power frankly not speaking of the difficulties is not trying to change something, and constantly delivers the national interests into account in the handouts of the international financial institutions? Therefore, while we should expect little swans dance ... but the dark ones,from the global bestseller "The Black Swan" by  financial gurus of New York Nasim Taleb. This is a book that everybody should read every financial analyst and every top manager of a large company. There was a big tragedy for the Polish people. Nation elite has died. How many kind words are addressed to Polish president. Will our senior officials feel the same from Ukrainian people one time? International stock markets grow, rising gold prices for raw materials, particularly oil. All in anticipation of a new spurt of world stock markets. Ukrainian stock market also grow on expectations of a successful privatization of state enterprises and the global increase in metal prices. European currency also crows. We still keep holding to portfolio mix of 10% - UAH, 30% - dollar, 30% - euro, 30% - gold (bar and paper). And 50% of your investment capital should be placed into investment funds directly to become an investor of the stock market of Ukraine. You should remember that capital is earned at the time of exit of the crisis, when the returns is calculated in percents, and not when the stock markets are calm. Main properly define the market and the time of investment! Here, is all asi n fishing! Good luck to you investment fishing! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/3256.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/3256.html Headlines of the week: the Ukrainian stock market fell silent for a long time after news of the results of presidential elections, the problems of Greece make dificulties to entire European economy, the next turn is of Spain and Portugal, Ukraine budget problem will soon become apparent, unpopular measures of the new coalition government could not be avoided Mon, 15 Feb 2010 14:11:53 +0200 "Fortune loves sensible less , and courageous more, and those who often repeat: sink or swim" So, wherever you look, the wise are always poor, and ... the stupid are rich, hold high public office ... " - Erasmus wrote in his famous work "Praise of Folly". People had long asked themselves the question: "what leads a person to succeed in business"? It turns out that it is the ability to take advantage of favorable circumstances. One was asked how he earned the first million. "It's hard work, bought bananas, sold bananas, ... until my grandmother died ..." Than the second one was asked how he earned his first million. ̶ First bought property - than sold property. ̶ And where did you get money to buy property? ̶ Firtst bought the land - than the land has sold and bought property. ̶ And where did you get money to buy the land? ̶ Firts bought a car - than sold a car and bought the land. ̶ And where did you get money to buy a car? ̶ Has sold the bike and bought a car. Because of the bike I have been already in jail! There are a lot of the stories about successful people. Very few people that are prudent has come to great success. The ability to prepare for success is extremely important. We must always be ready to take advantage of favorable circumstances in the business. And in such opportunities we should invest. It is called investing in real options in the modern language of investment analysis. Business management is very similar to the controling of own lives. We sometimes accelerates the life`s move, sometimes slow it down, change profession, business direction, friends, place of residence ... And these changes hapen spontaneously, unplanned. But what hapens if try to plan these changes or plan readiness for changes in the activities of company? This approach is incorporated in the analytical model of long-term strategy of the business. This topics we recently discussed with representatives of the European energy business in the Erasmus University in Rotterdam (Erasmus University Rotterdam), where I had the opportunity to teach a course of modern technology of evaluation of investment projects in high-risk conditions. This university was named after the famous philosopher Erasmus of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. We also discussed the issues of risk and management options in capital budgeting, value at risk (VaR), as the basic technology risk management company, using Cox model-Ross-Rubinstein to assess the risk of investment opportunities, continuous stochastic processes and model of the Black-Scholes-Merton for business valuation, mergers and acquisitions, investment timing and its effect, the increased cost of investment projects, as well as built-in project identification of attractive investment opportunities and their assessment. Representatives of the European energy businesses admitted that Ukraine for them is rather exotic and dangerous in terms of investment. They have a great desire to invest in renewable energy, they are looking for the family of Ukrainian partners, but so far ... their investment environment ends at the east of Germany. Furthermore - some risks ... Therefore, the aim of the course is just to show the hidden opportunities that carries a risk, turning its skilful actions to the additional opportunities. Generally, looking how an ordinary Dutchman lives and understaning that they live only ones and additional features, which brings them Ukraine is not commensurate with the destruction of their quiet and unhurried pace of life. They say  that they are too lazy to hunt for "pie in the sky." Perhaps, Ukrainians sould catch the tail of the bird of good luck and get to work, while Europe is sleeping. We still keep holding to portfolio mix of 10% - UAH, 30% - dollar, 30% - euro, 30% - gold (bar and paper). Ukrainian stock market some times is stagnating and determining the future trend. If we can win populism and social distribution of gingerbread, increase competition, establish clear rules for business, there is a chance for growth. Do not miss out  a favorable investment opportunity! All genius is simple, and is near! Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/2099.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/2099.html Headlines of the week: world stocks awaiting an information stimulant, Ukrainian stocks still undervalued, the “Donbass-Areana” opening ceremony being a kind of a reagent paper to test the national politicum loyalty to big business, hryvnia decline provoking capital flight from investment funds, school year beginning Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:53:37 +0300 When the crisis was about to gain momentum in 2007, one of the most popular American channels commented on Ben Bernanke’s appointment as “Bernanke is an academic and this is no time for academics now!” Public sentiment has not been merciful to Mr. Bernanke of late, still no alternative to him had been found. Barack Obama, speaking on Ben Bernanke’s reappointment, underlined that Bernanke is recognized in academic circles as a leading scholar on the Great Depression, deemed a good area of expertise given the current crisis. Bernanke’s academic experience – that is to say - had been judged according to its merits by US top authority. Why academic endeavor is not made a merit here in Ukraine? Our leadership should be asked this question, promptly, on the 1st of September, the date celebrated as this country’s national holiday. As usual, we happen to witness gallery play galore on this day like “national pedagogical community should be set face towards, and paid credit by society”… Probably, some teacher’s family might even be granted some flat. Somebody else shall happen to be set against some other side of the body (which is extremely contrary to face). And that thing perpetuates, irrespective whether this or that political force grabbed power.. Lack of comprehensive approach towards governing the state, patching it up while being a real go-getter, as well as hardly veiled pillaging keeps going – those are major characteristics of Ukrainian establishment today. Whom are we going to cheat? However could the public at large be deemed ignorant of the things in the education sphere? How long does it take to make college entrance procedure and college education process transparent? Why so much figure manipulations as far as aided persons and applicants-to-become lists were concerned? Interestingly enough, will any novelty be brought by external independent testing in 2010,yet? Western standards of independent third-party testing might quite comfortably be adopted by proper authorities in Ukraine, may they not? Or else, the perpetual falling into the same trap is but a peculiar national game? Or is it kind of a game of intrigue as being played, elaborated and lobbied by university deans? It appears that more than 25% of school golden medalists failed to prove their “knowledge” as the results of the independent testing have demonstrated. It’s high time medals be awarded according to the true results but not to the parents’ “procurements”! We are not alone and that’s the only good thing. There has been a rowdiest scandal in Germany quite recently related to a corruption scheme in education. A consultant agency there was allegedly supplying services related to dissertation defense but, in fact, it was trading scientific degrees. An unimaginable number of more than 100 professors were involved into the scheme. In Ukraine the rates have long since been established and well known to everyone, after all! Early signs of hryvnia devaluation got Ukrainian stock market moving, nervous investors are leaving mutual funds and running into hard currency, other group of investors on their part enter the local stock market, thus keeping hryvnia afloat. Positive signs are visible in exprt-oriented sectors (aircraft manufacturing plants (AH-70), metallurgy plants and energy companies). Since Ukrainian companies are adjusting future cash flows for the cost of hryvnia thus their market capitalization visibly grows. Hence, we are on the strong track while investing into the local economy, buying local companies’ stock due to individual industrial preferences. As to me, I’d rather stick to: AZST, ENMZ, ALMK, STIR, ZAEN, BAVL. As far as the portfolio mix is concerned, I’m looking forward to the NBU and the government “hide-end-seek” game over. Once dollar has dropped vs hryvnia, I’ll have a go at: 10% - UAH, 20% - dollar, 40% - euro, 30% - gold (bar and paper). Those passengers who were flying by «America West» off Dallas one fine day were pleasantly surprised to notice that the liner reversed back to pick “Califrnia Angels” on board. Preasently, their feelings reversed to the unhappy once they learned that upon landing they were supposed to leave the plane so as the Angels would feel more comfortably… It’s a good piece of food for thought in our political environment, either? Lest we may happen to give up seats to some sort of Ukrainian “angels” on the elections eve, should the latter try the feat of saving the country from some sort of “dinosaurs”. As one of Harvard professors and a friend of mine just hit the mark recently: “D’you know why dinosaurs go extinct? The distance was too great between their brains and where the body's main activities take place". Finance and investments http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/2042.html http://www.investadviser.com.ua/eng/advices/2042.html Headlines of the week: Hryvnia downtrend steadied at 10 kopeks’ week-on -week mark-down, world stocks has yet felt the spanking breeze of growth, Ukrainian stock market celebrates “independence” from Russian and American markets demonstrating growth even on negative news Tue, 25 Aug 2009 10:38:00 +0300 Independence Day celebrations in Ukraine call up the subject of “victorious advance on the track of prosperity”! We are really proud of our country where we can express ourselves freely, as well as can pursue our wills and thrive on the things we like; where there is plenty opportunity for fostering entrerepreneurial ability as opposed to its total absence in the times of Soviet decay. We travel across the world to learn other cultures and gains of other nations. What’s next? Transfer from 10-year towards 11-and-12-year schools, and stuffing the schedules with unnecessary subjects, new “American” teaching techniques which are alien to local customs and traditions? Our health care system has left hospitals short of medicine, bedclothes and provisions; it has supplied third-rate prophylactic vaccines causing child deaths instead and caused growing sentiments against home doctors prescribing sky-high value medicine and antibiotics as the only panacea for any disease. Roads covered with dents, burdened with silly restrictions and suburban shared taxis constantly packed with passengers standing bent-down. Arts are being flourishing? Sports being at their best? How about ecology and environment preservation? Has corruption been combated or defense capability properly maintained? Do pension plans insure decent living standards for the elderly? Sad to say but that is about it. We might come back to creating our state anew at this point…crisis is the best time to reconceive the ways state politics is fulfilled. Do we really “need that thunder” to find ourselves next door to default so as the authorities might “cross themselves and wonder” and eventually start caring about the country? There’s criticism galore on the government decision to associate IMF professionals into drawing up the 2010 budget. No other way it could be done, for sure. Whoever can make it deficit-free for us? At least there will be that somebody to be put in the wrong, whereas we’ll stand aside watching, having nothing to do with it. It might be a wise thing to do, in fact, to put the matter into professional hands. As far as grab-what-you-can post privatization’s concerned... What’s it to us? The most precious thing in governing our state is that there’s always an opportunities for state property carve-up (done fully “legitimately”). What would be the point in state power, if it were not for the latter? The National Bank rows over dollar: hryvnia decline steadied at 10 kopeks’ week-on -week mark-down. Having the dynamics handy it is easy to figure out where we will end up by the end of the year. It’s essential indeed, to have things well sorted out and predictable, right?.. There are three issues that blow minds of investors’ community at the moment and they are as follows: 1. When does the world recession end? 2. Which way and due to what means is the world economy supposed to recover? 3. Are there standing risks of a new crisis (a relapse into a new one)? Nuriel Rubiny contends that collapse of euro zone economies as well as the economy in US will be stopped by the 4-th quarter of 2009 and they’ll start gaining momentum early in 2010. There are sure signs of recovery in China, India and Brazil. As to the question #2, the actual form of the recovery is just being discussed. Still, dollar standing remains precarious and more and more voices are heard in favor of difficult times for it still to come, and there’s no smoke without fire, of course! Quite a number of my acquaintances turned to converting dollar assets into euro of late. Once NBU gets impelled to bring substantial sums into the interbank at the rate of 7,8 – 8/$, my strong recommendations will be to have the portfolio restructured as follows: 10% - UAH, 30% - dollar, 55% - euro, 5% - gold (bar and paper). Ukrainian stock market will definitely keep growing, in my strong opinion. “Staying in cash” will be quite a dangerous thing to do soon, so some substantial investments should be considered like realty or stock market. It would not come amiss to have a closer look at “Finart The 1st” interval fund. It has just been registered and the investment certificates of the fund can be bought at face value (Hr1.000.00). There’s detailed info on the fund’s characteristics and sales conditions at: www.finartcapital.com Behavioral financial ideas do capture the headlines and The Economist’s fresh look on the subject might be quite interesting: The Economist