Middle of the week thoughts: juvenile optimism vs knowledgeable pessimism

kmbs research (1) 10 June'09

Tags: Ukraine, exchange rate

Our minds are inhabited with most realistic forcasts, as well as an erray of solutions to multiple economic problems: it’s essential that the data should be efficiently produced and promptly handled.

On May 15 to 30th an opinion poll with participation of executives and business owners was held at KMBS on the subject of dolla/euro to UAH exchange rate as estimated for the two selected dates:  October the 1st, 2009 and January the 1st, 2010.Over 105 respondents agreed to answer the survey. The results were totaled and illustrated in chart/graph forms below:

 

Dollar exchange rate

Forcast date 1, Oct 2009 1, Jan 2010
Average rate, UAH/$ 8.45 8.93
Standard deviation 0.12 0.18
95% confidence interval [8.21; 8.68] [8.58; 9.30]

Empirical and normal
density functions
(click on a graph to enlarge it)

Clusterization:
Cluster 1 (basic). Probability - 95%
Average rate, UAH/$ 8.24 8.63
Standard deviation 0.09 0.14
95% confidence interval [8.06; 8.41] [8.35; 8.90]
Cluster 2 (pessimistic). Probability - 5%
Average rate, UAH/$ 11.92 14.08
Standard deviation 0.24 0.55
95% confidence interval [11.30; 12.53] [12.66; 15.51]

 

Euro exchange rate

Forcast date 1, Oct 2009 1, Jan 2010
Average rate, UAH/EURO 11.11 11.79
Standard deviation 0.16 0.26
95% confidence interval [10.79; 11.44] [11.27; 12.32]

Empirical and normal
density functions
(click on a graph to enlarge it)

Clusterization:
Cluster 1 (basic). Probability - 95%
Average rate, UAH/EURO 10.89 11.37
Standard deviation 0.14 0.19
95% confidence interval [10.61; 11.17] [10.98; 11.76]
Cluster 2 (pessimistic). Probability - 5%
Average rate, UAH/EURO 14.73 18.80
Standard deviation 0.74 1.69
95% confidence interval [12.83; 16.64] [14.46; 23.14]

 

The study has indicated that there is no strict correlation of the forecast data with respondents’ sex.  Analysis indicates essential influence of the respondent’s age on the dollar (euro) to hryvnia prospective rate, in that pessimism of Ukrainian managers grows with their age, aligned with the increase in their hard-currency expectations.

Authors:

Myknaylo Kolisnyk, kmbs dean, leader of kmbs Finance School, chief of the MBF program;
Evhen Pentsak, Ph.D., Lausanne University [Швейцарія], c. ph.-m. s., scientific supervisor of the MBF program at kmbs.

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See also:

Мысли среди недели:путь к спасению мировой экономики

Последние события на мировых фондовых рынках заставили задуматься, как близко мы стоим к краю мировой экономической пропасти. События 11 марта 2011 года, 4 августа 2011 уверенно указывают на то, что депрессивное десятилетия начала третьего тысячелетия будет иметь еще более депрессивное продолжение. Движется ли мир в хорошем направлении во всех смыслах слова «добрый»? Может долго держаться макияж, если наносить один слой пудры за другим?

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