Yevhen Pentsak's advice: analysts recommend to look at green colours during the crisis period

Yevhen Pentsak (50) 13 April'09

Tags: investor, IMF, gold, currency, investments, Yevhen Pentsak

Information background of the week: Ukrainian bank recapitalization is delayed, the presidential elections are approaching, everybody is preparing for Easter holidays, do not be afraid to say to the financial crisis «No!» - nobody will suffer: neither you nor the crisis, the president of Ukraine calls to address to the society for support of stability.

People say that the clever thought differs from a stupid one only in the head where these thoughts come. I would rather correct this statement in the following way: clever thought differs from stupid one only in the place from where it goes.

In mathematical logic there are phrases that deny themselves. For example, one well-known logician wrote a book under the title «What is the name of this book?». Today our president on the Coordinating Council decided to try himself in the self-denial exercises: «It is very important that this board, the highest coordinating board, spoke clear about the support of stability factors».

Hryvnya has stabilized before the IMF mission arrival. Although there is no reason for the rapid fall of hryvnya, but also there is no reason for its growth. There is a total restructuring of debts in the corporate sector. Commercial banks are struggling to keep liquidity, and looking forward for recapitalization from the National Bank. However, a lot will depend on the final decision of the IMF regarding the second tranche of the loan. Based on purely subjective reasons, there are two basic scenarios according to which events of the next few months will develop:

  1. 1. With 30% probability the second tranche of IMF credit will be given only on condition that the state budget will be re-examined and the budget deficit will be lowered taking into account the negative forecast of the World Bank. Then the inflation rate will retain at 15%, the dollar will stabilize at the level 7.50 UAH, the investments in agriculture by foreign companies will began, many Ukrainian banks will go bankrupt, the elections of Ukrainian president will took place in a regular mode.
  2. 2. With 70% probability the representation office of the IMF in Ukraine will not reach an agreement with the Government and we will be refused in the second tranche of credit. The government will launch printing machine with the help of National Bank, the progressing inflation, which could reach 30% per annum, will begin, the foreign currency trading will stop, the dollar will «jump» to 15-20 UAH on the black market, the actions of disaffected public, which may have unintended consequences, will began, Western investors will lose interest to Ukraine for many years.

It is clear that the development of these scenarios may be of more or less pronounced kind. There is no doubt that dollar will not lose the position of world currency, and the crisis overcoming will begin in the United States and China. Ukraine will turn into an agrarian country, and the entire intellectual potential of the nation will be working in the global IT industry.

I suggest to keep gold-currency portfolio in the following form:

  • 20% - in hryvnya,
  • 30% - in dollar,
  • 30% - in euro,
  • 20% - in cash or cashless gold (gold restored a positive trend today).

I recommend to look at green colors, especially at green leaves that have begun to blossom on the trees already. People say that green color has a positive effect on the eye, and some shades of green color in big quantities can soothe human psyche, and help to think about eternal on Easter eve!

Let’s remember that it is better to look at everything philosophically, than to have nothing to look at all!

Let’s prepare for holidays and gather everything green, good, eternal!

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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

Comments:

Matros 15/04/2009 13:02

Добре... Наче речі далеко не з приємних для країни написані, але ж в якій позитивній формі!

Пане Євгене, маю наступне питання: на чому базуються відсотки 30% і 70%? Ви користуєтесь якоюсь моделлю, чи це більше інтуіція?

pentsak@kmbs.com.ua 15/04/2009 17:33

Це мої персональні відчуття! Але вчора я зробив опитування фіндиректорів, аналітиків, топ - менеджерів стосовно майбутніх сценаріїв розвитку України. Думаю, що у найближчому своєму повідомленні я розповім нашій аудиторії про результати і ймовірності, побудовані на експертних оцінках.

mike 17/04/2009 13:46

Будет ли таким радужным развитие событий после получения транша? Ведь методы борьбы с кризисом, навязанные нам МВФом, пока не приводят к улучшению ситуации

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