Yevhen Pentsak's advice: the fear and anger of investors influence the duration of crisis

Yevhen Pentsak (50) 31 March'09

Tags: banking system, NBU, IMF, financial market

The informational background of the week: FRS of the USA has doubled the plan of the repayment of hypothecary debt instruments, falling of the USA government stocks yield and the growth of the Ukrainian emitters’ eurobonds yield, numerous memorandums on cooperation between Ukraine and Japan are signed, the second tranche of IMF has started again to "shine", the informational noise around reconstruction of Ukraine’s GTS, a reduction of a public contract with higher education, "optimisation" of diplomatic representatives of Ukraine abroad.

All external market signals with the repayment of the USA long-term bonds and issuing forecasts in the eurozone are extremely important for the Ukrainian financial market, however the basic events will be developed now around granting to Ukraine the second IMF tranche and the information fights concerning modernisation of the Ukraine’s gas-transport system.

As we also expected in Advice of the week from 02.02.2009, PR (The Party of Regions) starts to make active around itself the "unsatisfied" masses and heads a campaign on the government. Leaders of BYuT ask opposition not to block consideration in parliament of anti-recessionary laws in draft, doing an accent on importance for Ukraine reception of an information signal in the form of the second tranche. In my opinion, it is all the thought over mutually advantageous scenario for several political forces: anybody also does not expect reception of the second tranche of IMF because nobody expects to satisfy the conditions of its granting. We wrote about it in Middle-week thoughts from 06.03.2009. This conscious mucking around with the international community which very often was possible to our political leaders. The history with an IMF tranche reminds an old joke:

̶        - Ivan, I want again to Paris.
̶        - And have you already been there?
̶        - No, I want again.

The Natsbank thinks, that outflow of deposits from the banking system has decreased. Certainly, if an interim administration will be established in ten more banks it can be reduced even more. Leshek Baltserovich, the Polish economist-reformer and the politician, advises to Ukraine to become bankrupt as soon as possible and nationalise a significant part of the Ukrainian banks, to pay deposits to citizens urgently and to start restoring trust to the banking system. Refinancing banks at the expense of all citizens of Ukraine, all tax bearers is unfair! Unfair and immoral, first of all in relation to our pensioners and weakly protected, to all who requires the help on unemployment, etc.

It is a high time already to give all of us to itself a fair self-estimation of what has occurred. Researchers say, that a fair self-estimation should consist of six components:

  • A feeling of physical safety;
  • A feeling of emotional safety;
  • Understanding of own identity;
  • A feeling of independence;
  • The competence;
  • A mission – knowing the sense of own life.

Therefore, generally speaking, in Ukraine has not occurred anything catastrophic. Economic difficulties can be overcome, the main thing – not to lose the sense of existence. It is necessary to support the closest of each other in order that these six component could be realised in their best way. It is said that the care about near is an essence of human existence which unites all religions of the world.

Maintain the investment portfolio in the same form as last week.

And the fear and anger lead up people to horror and a hysteria. There is an interesting mathematical theory, the universal theory of accidents by Ren Toma which can in a simple way explain many the physical, economic, biological and psychological phenomena, from the elementary to the most complicated. In particular, the theory shows, how events can rapidly develop depending on what efforts and in what sequence preceded the given condition. I will illustrate the given theory with drawings from the Ian Stewart's book «The secret of an accident»:

 

The fear and anger lead up the person and the country to an accident. However, when the fear is replaced by anger the accident is inevitable. When the anger amplifies feeling of the big fear the catastrophic consequence can be avoided.

Therefore, it is not necessary to be afraid of the crisis, the crisis will pass, the life will be stabilised! And it is possible to become angry with the power and we should – she deserves that! However it is necessary to have a measure and to do it in the civilised method, in order not to get on a hook to those who can destroy our country!

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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

Comments:

Bohdan 31/03/2009 21:34

Поддерживаю последний абзац. Когда в нас появляется гнев или страх, важно остановится и задуматься: кто и зачем нами манипулирует?

Евгений, Вам бы больше аудиторию...

lag 02/04/2009 11:12

[Bohdan]: Поддерживаю ! Развитие аудитории проэкта зависит и от нас с Вами. Я например, поделился ссылкой на этот сайт со своими коллегами и все они остались довольны. И если каждый из нас "приведет" хотябы одного-двух своих коллег -- количество аудитории стремительно будет увеличиваться.

Знание в массы ! Господа.

changed: 02/04/2009 11:13, reply

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