Yevhen Pentsak's advice: balancing on the tightrope without the right for an error
Headlines of the week: Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, budget deficit threatening situations, the Ukrainian stock market was reflected to "bottom", but promised to get back, increasing excise duties on alcohol, tobacco, mineral water, tax war with the "alien" business for budget revenues
Year 2010 and especially the beginning of May will be remembered for all investors by its unpredictable "dodge": drop the index S & P 500 minutes May 6 by 10-15%, resulting in reduction of its capitalization to $ 1 trillion, falling Ukrainian Stock Market 50% -60% for no apparent reasons for this. All has become hostage of a small Greek financial turbulence that has long lived according to their financial capabilities. But it is not just Greece, but also many other Old World countries that have not already seen social upheaval. Their lives have long moved beyond the usual posibilities. It resembled a full sea are calm and it was unclear that provides a force inflame Europe soon. But this force was found - no money. When you do not have what to eat, you begin to think more effectively! They started to cut budget, and here social discontent. If you has not worked for some period of time, then coming back to work gets very hard. Than you begin to think about social injustice. Salary - this is sacred, especially budgeting one. Europe will reap the benefits from losing its competitive ability. In my opinion, the United States lifted long ago by its scientific and technical potential and created all conditions for business development from the rest of the world.
Therefore, I believe, that Europe will not come out of the crisis quicly, we will see another wave of social upheaval in Europe. It certainly will affect the cash flows from exports of Ukrainian industry. It is clear that under such circumstances Ukrainian hryvnia will not long hold at 8 USD. per dollar. Typically, a change in the dollar with respect to the current rate in the second half of August, while the scorching sun in the summer holidays, people will lose vigilance for a moment, and then the currency depreciation will apear.
I do not want to be evil oracle, but the air begins to smell roasted. In this situation, loans from the IMF we will not see for a long time, but for old time will come, pay. "And we will take the money?" - Says the popular cartoon hero. "Borrow from neighbors!" And if your neighbor has problems? "Sell something unusefull! A little left to sell, and not the fact that someone needed it. Remains - to sell yourself. But in Europe and its citizens have nothing to take the unemployment rate reaches 10%.
Exit the circle can only because of their unique skills when you can do what others can not. Here we need to find the source of his success. We need to change the system structure of our country,and begin to reform our education system. Diplomas of our universities are "fig leaf" covering our ignorance and lack of qualification even average international standards of education. We lie ourselves while passing the final examinations at school, where parents often handouts for teachers and school administration completely gray pupils are native gold medals and good government awards as gifted children can not break through to "the elite" university faculties. The company has not even started an open dialogue on this painful topic. We are accustomed to years of telephone rights, stronger is the one who is in power.
Until we stop dividing people in Ukraine by its strange color depending on the power, and until we will not understand our unique values, and until we will not not reform state government in practice, and until we will not stop practicing the total populism, we should not expect any improvements in the life of country.
We still keep holding to portfolio mix of
- 10% - UAH,
- 40% - dollar,
- 20% - euro,
- 30% - gold (bar and paper).
Now is an opportune time to place 50% of your investment capital in investment funds or directly become Ukraine's stock market investor, entrusting their money professional analysts in the field of investment management.
Remember: you relax and your money is working. Take care. they work effectively.
Happy summer holidays to you and your money - success!
See also:
Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков
Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?
