Yevhen Pentsak's advice: The dance of small swans ... but the black ones

Yevhen Pentsak (50) 15 April'10

Tags: fund market, investment, Yevhen Pentsak

Headlines of the week: an irreparable loss of the Polish people, the Ukrainian stock market is eager to achieve its pre-crisis indicators, Ukraine has gave up its last batch of highly enriched uranium, consideration of 2010 budget, the Western stock markets are soaring on the symptoms of the financial crisis endind.

As we know, there are two versions of "Swan Lake" by Tchaikovsky - author and Ricardo Drigo versions. Let me briefly recall the plot of the ballet.

The Prince celebrates great party to choose a bride among those invited to the ball . Among them, there is one grace and beauty girl-swan, but she is charmed by evil sorcerer, black kite. Dispel his charm can only that one who recognizes the Swan Princess as eternal love, or someone who will be able to price their own lives to defeat the sorcerer. Prince promises the girl that she would be his girl-friend. However, magician substitutes her with another girl similar to the Swan Princess. The Prince publicly vows of love. The words of oath are said, nothing can be chaned. Prince is trying to beg forgiveness of the beautiful swan, decides to liberate his beloved and stay on the bottom of the lake along with the deposed magician.

There are two variants of the final ballet: 1) (original) Prince takes fight with the enemy, but he throws him into a lake; the girl-friend stays with the prince, and evil is overcomed; 2) (Ricardo`s Drigo version) Prince fights with a wizard, to help prince girl-swan overcomes the wizard and the couple wins. Such story is described in the ballet, but in real life the story could happen quite differently: a young boy could like the purpose, and a beautiful girl, that is a white swan would remain forever with the wizard. I do not  continue to draw parallels about the handsome prince and a young beauty, political roads, that lead not to the same way. But who is this evil genius that fascinates our beauties and that makes the princes` mind supid? How many years Ukraine will suffer from the actions of our politicians?

The latest news about the Ukraine`s refusal of the latest installment of highly enriched uranium, which Viktor Yanukovych claimed during the meeting with Barack Obama in Washington, was perceived  by the world community and within Ukraine quite differently. "For a long period of time, this second largest country in Europe after Russia, held on to this security guarantee in order to frighten the aggressor. And now made a gift ... "- Wrote the German newspaper Die Welt. Here are the comments of the Ukrainian opposition to A. Turchinov: "Take away from Ukraine highly enriched uranium - is, in fact, to put an end to scientific developments in this direction. It's too high price for 5 minutes of conversation with Obama because of the United States, which always defend democracy throughout the world, turning a blind eye to the fact that we have unconstitutionally created a majority. I have a very unpleasant feeling that Ukraine is humiliated ...». Unfortunately Turchinov is rights. Ukraine is humiliated at every step in international politics. But this "merit" is not only the current of government and all governments and presidents who ruled the country. Essentially, nothing changes, Ukrainian government - is only mean for the public property, that, during the period of government, can be interpreted as his own. We are looking for effective governance mechanisms, and look around. Ask the bankers, who holds the most savings in banks. Go through neighborhoods of large cities and ask the people who are the owners of these castles? Whose accounts in Western banks are concentrated in major resources? Yes, it is in the Ukrainian "elite", but not in businessmen or scientists, athletes or artists, and government officials, MPs, judges, prosecutors,all "solved." And do not say that this has happened with the advent of the new government. So it was, so it is... We have what we have. Life goes on and you want to enjoy it. I liked the Igor Umansky interview , former Acting Minister of Finance in Ukraine (www.epravda.com.ua). Here are some abstracts:

  • Every month until the 25 th we gave the Pension Fund loan, and after 25 they tell us they are not returned. Pension Fund and Naftogaz - it is the time bomb tha is ticking for the budget.
  • While speaking about the process of restructuring of debts of Naftogaz, I do not understand how it all rested. When we has gone, Prime said: "... I do not understand how all this has not collapsed."
  • Frankly, the president, parliament and National Bank worked on defaulted economy. Of course, it was possible to recognize publicly the 2009 budget deficit of 40 billion USD. Folded arms, and slowly crawl to the cemetery.
  • Where's the money? All figures and all the analysis - the World Bank, the IMF. We have nothing from them to hide. (???)
  • System error was because of the deficit of the Pension Fund that was not included in the budget. If we compare the increase of the liabilities of the Pension Fund, the amount of wages and GDP growth from 2002 to 2009 - dynamics is quite different.
  • The main problem is that there are 6 different prices for gas. Assume that the company uses natural gas as a public company and pays him 560 USD, and you pay for gas as an industrial plant - 2600 UAH. You agree with the supplier, and he draws gas public utility company at a price 5 times lower ...
  • For example, chemists. Must be stored in the logic of benefits. ... If a company produces fertilizers for Ukrainian households, and will not sell it abroad. Why encourage them, if they are in Africa, then take out fertilizer?
  • Consider the idea of monetization - is absolutely correct in terms of budget. When a state transfer benefits in money, then it needs to be honest, ... that they are much smaller.
  • National Bank during the first week after the change of government has issued nearly 4.5 billion hryvnia. If properly consider the budget, then we obtain more than 170 bln. additional costs for the introduction of the law on social standards. ... Total released 210 billion UAH.
  • Let's calculate. 4,2 million of such people. If you raise their pay at least ... up to 200 USD, we will have almost a billion to the pension fund every month.

In my opinion, everything becomes clear, where we're rolling. And against the background of the delivery of highly enriched uranium is as a forced move, as well as transformation of the IMF credit line in the new line until 2012. Otherwise, the Euro 2012 is at risk. Everything can be understandable, but why do any power frankly not speaking of the difficulties is not trying to change something, and constantly delivers the national interests into account in the handouts of the international financial institutions?

Therefore, while we should expect little swans dance ... but the dark ones,from the global bestseller "The Black Swan" by  financial gurus of New York Nasim Taleb. This is a book that everybody should read every financial analyst and every top manager of a large company.

There was a big tragedy for the Polish people. Nation elite has died. How many kind words are addressed to Polish president. Will our senior officials feel the same from Ukrainian people one time?

International stock markets grow, rising gold prices for raw materials, particularly oil. All in anticipation of a new spurt of world stock markets. Ukrainian stock market also grow on expectations of a successful privatization of state enterprises and the global increase in metal prices. European currency also crows.

We still keep holding to portfolio mix of

  • 10% - UAH,
  • 30% - dollar,
  • 30% - euro,
  • 30% - gold (bar and paper).

And 50% of your investment capital should be placed into investment funds directly to become an investor of the stock market of Ukraine.

You should remember that capital is earned at the time of exit of the crisis, when the returns is calculated in percents, and not when the stock markets are calm.

Main properly define the market and the time of investment! Here, is all asi n fishing!

Good luck to you investment fishing!

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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

Comments:

VolodymyrKoval 15/04/2010 23:00

Чудово!!! Нова порада! Вже скучили. :-)

Andriy123 19/04/2010 08:40

Так, п. Євгене, виходьте в "ефір" не рідше 2 разів на місяць: Ваша аналітика та поради для нас дуже важливі... Успіхів Вам!

Andriy123 20/04/2010 15:31

Є побажання: розділ "Відповіді на часто задавані питання" теж поновлювати не рідше 2 разів на місяць. Дякую!

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