Yevhen Pentsak's advice: Fortune loves courageous
Headlines of the week: the Ukrainian stock market fell silent for a long time after news of the results of presidential elections, the problems of Greece make dificulties to entire European economy, the next turn is of Spain and Portugal, Ukraine budget problem will soon become apparent, unpopular measures of the new coalition government could not be avoided
"Fortune loves sensible less , and courageous more, and those who often repeat: sink or swim" So, wherever you look, the wise are always poor, and ... the stupid are rich, hold high public office ... " - Erasmus wrote in his famous work "Praise of Folly".
People had long asked themselves the question: "what leads a person to succeed in business"? It turns out that it is the ability to take advantage of favorable circumstances. One was asked how he earned the first million. "It's hard work, bought bananas, sold bananas, ... until my grandmother died ..." Than the second one was asked how he earned his first million.
̶ First bought property - than sold property.
̶ And where did you get money to buy property?
̶ Firtst bought the land - than the land has sold and bought property.
̶ And where did you get money to buy the land?
̶ Firts bought a car - than sold a car and bought the land.
̶ And where did you get money to buy a car?
̶ Has sold the bike and bought a car. Because of the bike I have been already in jail!
There are a lot of the stories about successful people. Very few people that are prudent has come to great success. The ability to prepare for success is extremely important. We must always be ready to take advantage of favorable circumstances in the business. And in such opportunities we should invest. It is called investing in real options in the modern language of investment analysis. Business management is very similar to the controling of own lives. We sometimes accelerates the life`s move, sometimes slow it down, change profession, business direction, friends, place of residence ... And these changes hapen spontaneously, unplanned. But what hapens if try to plan these changes or plan readiness for changes in the activities of company? This approach is incorporated in the analytical model of long-term strategy of the business.
This topics we recently discussed with representatives of the European energy business in the Erasmus University in Rotterdam (Erasmus University Rotterdam), where I had the opportunity to teach a course of modern technology of evaluation of investment projects in high-risk conditions.
This university was named after the famous philosopher Erasmus of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. We also discussed the issues of risk and management options in capital budgeting, value at risk (VaR), as the basic technology risk management company, using Cox model-Ross-Rubinstein to assess the risk of investment opportunities, continuous stochastic processes and model of the Black-Scholes-Merton for business valuation, mergers and acquisitions, investment timing and its effect, the increased cost of investment projects, as well as built-in project identification of attractive investment opportunities and their assessment.
Representatives of the European energy businesses admitted that Ukraine for them is rather exotic and dangerous in terms of investment. They have a great desire to invest in renewable energy, they are looking for the family of Ukrainian partners, but so far ... their investment environment ends at the east of Germany. Furthermore - some risks ... Therefore, the aim of the course is just to show the hidden opportunities that carries a risk, turning its skilful actions to the additional opportunities.
Generally, looking how an ordinary Dutchman lives
and understaning that they live only ones and additional features, which brings them Ukraine is not commensurate with the destruction of their quiet and unhurried pace of life. They say that they are too lazy to hunt for "pie in the sky."
Perhaps, Ukrainians sould catch the tail of the bird of good luck and get to work, while Europe is sleeping.
We still keep holding to portfolio mix of
- 10% - UAH,
- 30% - dollar,
- 30% - euro,
- 30% - gold (bar and paper).
Ukrainian stock market some times is stagnating and determining the future trend. If we can win populism and social distribution of gingerbread, increase competition, establish clear rules for business, there is a chance for growth.
Do not miss out a favorable investment opportunity!
All genius is simple, and is near!
See also:
Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков
Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?
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