Yevhen Pentsak's advice : what caused the dinosaurs to go extinct?

Yevhen Pentsak (50) 31 August'09

Tags: currency, exporter, fund market, crysis, Yevhen Pentsak

Headlines of the week: world stocks awaiting an information stimulant, Ukrainian stocks still undervalued, the “Donbass-Areana” opening ceremony being a kind of a reagent paper to test the national politicum loyalty to big business, hryvnia decline provoking capital flight from investment funds, school year beginning

When the crisis was about to gain momentum in 2007, one of the most popular American channels commented on Ben Bernanke’s appointment as “Bernanke is an academic and this is no time for academics now!” Public sentiment has not been merciful to Mr. Bernanke of late, still no alternative to him had been found. Barack Obama, speaking on Ben Bernanke’s reappointment, underlined that Bernanke is recognized in academic circles as a leading scholar on the Great Depression, deemed a good area of expertise given the current crisis. Bernanke’s academic experience – that is to say - had been judged according to its merits by US top authority.

Why academic endeavor is not made a merit here in Ukraine? Our leadership should be asked this question, promptly, on the 1st of September, the date celebrated as this country’s national holiday. As usual, we happen to witness gallery play galore on this day like “national pedagogical community should be set face towards, and paid credit by society”… Probably, some teacher’s family might even be granted some flat. Somebody else shall happen to be set against some other side of the body (which is extremely contrary to face). And that thing perpetuates, irrespective whether this or that political force grabbed power.. Lack of comprehensive approach towards governing the state, patching it up while being a real go-getter, as well as hardly veiled pillaging keeps going – those are major characteristics of Ukrainian establishment today.

Whom are we going to cheat? However could the public at large be deemed ignorant of the things in the education sphere? How long does it take to make college entrance procedure and college education process transparent? Why so much figure manipulations as far as aided persons and applicants-to-become lists were concerned? Interestingly enough, will any novelty be brought by external independent testing in 2010,yet? Western standards of independent third-party testing might quite comfortably be adopted by proper authorities in Ukraine, may they not? Or else, the perpetual falling into the same trap is but a peculiar national game? Or is it kind of a game of intrigue as being played, elaborated and lobbied by university deans? It appears that more than 25% of school golden medalists failed to prove their “knowledge” as the results of the independent testing have demonstrated. It’s high time medals be awarded according to the true results but not to the parents’ “procurements”!

We are not alone and that’s the only good thing. There has been a rowdiest scandal in Germany quite recently related to a corruption scheme in education. A consultant agency there was allegedly supplying services related to dissertation defense but, in fact, it was trading scientific degrees. An unimaginable number of more than 100 professors were involved into the scheme. In Ukraine the rates have long since been established and well known to everyone, after all!

Early signs of hryvnia devaluation got Ukrainian stock market moving, nervous investors are leaving mutual funds and running into hard currency, other group of investors on their part enter the local stock market, thus keeping hryvnia afloat. Positive signs are visible in exprt-oriented sectors (aircraft manufacturing plants (AH-70), metallurgy plants and energy companies). Since Ukrainian companies are adjusting future cash flows for the cost of hryvnia thus their market capitalization visibly grows.

Hence, we are on the strong track while investing into the local economy, buying local companies’ stock due to individual industrial preferences. As to me, I’d rather stick to: AZST, ENMZ, ALMK, STIR, ZAEN, BAVL. As far as the portfolio mix is concerned, I’m looking forward to the NBU and the government “hide-end-seek” game over. Once dollar has dropped vs hryvnia, I’ll have a go at:

  • 10% - UAH,
  • 20% - dollar,
  • 40% - euro,
  • 30% - gold (bar and paper).

Those passengers who were flying by «America West» off Dallas one fine day were pleasantly surprised to notice that the liner reversed back to pick “Califrnia Angels” on board. Preasently, their feelings reversed to the unhappy once they learned that upon landing they were supposed to leave the plane so as the Angels would feel more comfortably… It’s a good piece of food for thought in our political environment, either? Lest we may happen to give up seats to some sort of Ukrainian “angels” on the elections eve, should the latter try the feat of saving the country from some sort of “dinosaurs”. As one of Harvard professors and a friend of mine just hit the mark recently: “D’you know why dinosaurs go extinct? The distance was too great between their brains and where the body's main activities take place".

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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

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