Yevhen Pentsak's advice: Ukraine’s government coalition quotes are steadier than gold

Tags: crysis, investor, market, gold, Yevhen Pentsak

This week’s headlines: banking community still fear-stricken, political intrigues around B’UT and PR appearing coalition, realty market being buoyant so far, stocks keep steady rise, gold prices are about to reach their maximum.

International Monetary Fund evaluates the downfall of leading economies at 3,8% in 2009 and expects zero growth rate there in the year 2010. As to the countries with emerging economies the Fund’s view on them is far more optimistic: 1,6% (2009) and 4% (2010) growth rate.

Chinese expanding economy encouraged the markets to advance in all developing countries. Mutual funds managers that had primarily kept money resting on deposits now converted more than 3, 8 billion into stocks, thus expanding their equity portfolios up to 60%. It’s obvious enough that good deal of funds is to be directed onto emerging markets. “Emerging markets is the only place whereby substantial growth is explicitly exhibited” they say.

Many analysts are also cautious of new bubbles to appear on the surface there and are stressing that “trend reverse in the markets is just being a matter of time”. We are probably positioned somewhere in between the above tendencies.

Ukrainian stock market is demonstrating a gradual growth yet its capacity remaining subdued. Bank sector is under storm and the second wave of downfall is expected and much feared by the players. Real estate is stuck and only sporadic offers are met, provided 20-25% discounts have been granted. Price pressures remained very prominent in the Ukrainian market, though they were not reported by the officially statistics.  Both domestic and international debts have notably grown. Government is reluctant to revise the planned budget estimates for the year 2009 for the simple reason the budget deficit may exceed the 4$ level agreed upon in the IMF Memorandum. Economic tension is being accelerated by Gazprom's threats and that it might result in another stoppage in the deliveries of gas supplies in case Naftogaz has failed to pay its bill for recent quantities. Political intrigues surrounding the new coalition which is due to be formed by two leading parties B’UT and PR and violent upheaval around alterations in the constitution to have the president elected by parliament, appear to be the only sign of relief in the dark background of financial crisis.

Western investor has long since got used to discordant accounts of Ukrainian affairs as well as stopped consequently reacting by price drop in Ukrainian Eurobonds. The bonds have kept to be high-yield and thus are promising much reward to bondholders. Gold keeps staying in positive trend and is shortly supposed to break the yearly line of resistance. Sharp inflation expectations may well have caused the gaining gold market, massive sellers market for US T-bonds and euro’s firm stand against dollar. Nevertheless, the above factors are still quite fragile (except for inflationary pressure) and gold can be demonstrating trend correction soon. For profit-fixing purpose we will have our gold position trimmed up.

As rebalanced, today’s portfolio will look as follows:

  • 35% - UAH,
  • 30% - dollar,
  • 30% - euro,
  • 5% - gold (bar and paper).
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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

Comments:

andyyalta 06/06/2009 20:06

За деякими інвестиційними сертифікатами закритих ПІФів підходять терміни їх погашення компаніями з управління активами (емітентами). Як Ви оцінюєте платоспроможність цих компаній (зокрема, КІНТО). Завчасно дякую.

changed: 06/06/2009 20:08, reply
pentsak@kmbs.com.ua 08/06/2009 08:44

Багато КУА поправили свій фінансовий стан протягом останніх двох місяців, коли ми спостерігали стрімке зростання фондового ринку. Тому з платоспроможністю відомих КУА не повинно бути особливих проблем. Щодо закритих ПІФів, то тут інша історія. На мою думку, якщо вартість їх сертифікатів набагато нижча від номіналу, то за рішенням самих власників сертифікатів термін їх погашення буде відтерміновано. Щодо КІНТО, то в мене немає сумніву, що ця компанія залишиться на ринку і буде на ньому ключевим гравцем.

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