Yevhen Pentsak's advice: mad “money-happy spending” sweets to be replaced with bitter sober pills

Tags: market, Yevhen Pentsak, investor, crysis, credit, real estate, NBU, deposit

Information background of the week: bankers are deeply concerned with heightened risks of mortgage loan defaults due to the borrowers’ ability to legally declare personal insolvency for as long as by the end crisis. “You go” – the first one in the row goes away under liquidation procedure. Second wave of financial crisis is expected to rise in autumn. We are starting to “feel” the real- estate market bottom line.

According to May public opinion polls held by “Tsentr” analytical agency, only 7% of those interrogated had plans to deposit their savings at banks, 92% of poll participants aren’t willing to do so at all.

By way of citing - the key players of banking industry in this country give the following forecast:

  1. Within the time-span of 3 to 5 months good deal of deposit amounts are expected to return into the banking system for – psychologically - the population can’t go on keeping cash loosely in their pockets subject to profound profit-thirsty sentiments. Stock of money at large for today can hardly be kept controllable…
  2. Most of the current estimates imply that crisis is exhausting its course, yet things aren’t going to look same as compared to this time last year. For the "lovely dosh" splashed into the public (by means of different credit programs) to settle primarily their needs for entertainment and the like, has turned "tarty" penny. Those reckless practices are never to come back to bankers’ arsenal.
  3. And again, the issues of National Bank’s hazardous attempts are there on the agenda, regulating the banks to sell currency, whereas the National Bank itself, as it happened, seems to be reluctant to buy it back.
  4. At the moment things look much like a temporary relief- break that has been announced by “crisis law” for corporate sector, unfortunately, is getting less cable of settling bank loans. We have gone through the first spiral of crisis. The next one is expected early in autumn. We have merely grasped at a straw on our freefall to the abyss.

Politics: much stormy weather is forecast there at President secretarial office, causing “the system leaks”, and “the plumber” is busy fixing the drain wider wide open, instead. Normally, the plumbers are being introduced to their positions by the “local rental properties management office”, through being thoroughly interviewed and selected. And if the said “plumber” would keep failing to visit calls, he is supposed to be given notice. And that notice usually happens within the first week, instead of 3 years probation period. .

Real estate: the bottom line got to be reached last week. One of the developers reduced the price 25% - two flats being sold off within the 2 day… Many a prospective buyers failed to jump to the opportunity and missed to fulfill the purchase. So, the figures look as follows: in case the buyers’ market keeps pace at 2% per month, in 10 months’ time it will have softened up to 10% and start moving at that particular level. Is the estate worth keeping over the period of 10 months, as mentioned? It looks like downtrend seems a wise option that might have enabled paying off the mortgage loans and have brought good opportunity for further cash reinvesting at 20%-30% rate of annual interest. Staying in buyers’ market with real estate will cause further losses to come.

Markets: stock market keeps slowing down the upward trend, gold stays positive. The market is so far awaiting a correction trend: everyone is aware of the correction, yet no one can name the exact date. Probably, it’s going to happen right now. Financial sector tickers can be well marketed at the moment, as well as gold – partial sale is welcome for sake of profit -fixing.

Thus, we suggest rebalancing the portfolio in the following way:

  • 30% - in UAH,
  • 30% - in dollar,
  • 30% - in euro,
  • 10% - cash or cashless gold.

Watch out for financial piramids in Ukraine. Do not beleive in easy money: 1,5% - 3% daily. You can't make your happyness from someone's sorrow.

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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

Comments:

Barakuda 27/05/2009 17:44

Доброго дня,

1) чи могли б Ви підказати про сенс придбання золота у банках?
(для прикладу, Аваль продає по 300грн. за 1г, а купує за 190грн. за 1г.).
Розрив зовсім не схожий на 7коп. як по USD, наприклад:
Валюта bid ask
USD 7.6225 7.6966

2) які яльтернативні джерела придбання/продажу XAU? (Індана Джонса не пропонувати)))

pentsak@kmbs.com.ua 28/05/2009 09:45

Доброго дня, я не хочу робити безкоштовну рекламу жодному банку, що працює з золотом, але ми проводимо операції з золотом з одним з банків, що Ви знайдете тут http://news.finance.ua/ru/~/1/50/all/2009/05/27/161664 Спред величиною 10 грн. є цілком допустимим. Останню операцію по золоту ми закрили по 233 грн. за гр. Мова йде про золотий рахунок у банку. Існують інші альтернативи придбання золотих сертифікатів, але економія з"явиться при купівлі 100 унцій.

changed: 28/05/2009 10:52, reply
gost99 28/05/2009 23:12

друга хвиля банківської кризи очікується на осінь, починаємо відчувати дно ринку нерухомості.
На мою думку одне твердження протирічить іншому.

pentsak@kmbs.com.ua 29/05/2009 13:31

Дно ринку нерухомості вимірюється у показниках вартості житла - мінус 20-25% до поточної ціни, тобто на рівні 500-550 дол. за кв.м. у регіонах і 800-900 дол. за кв. м. - у Києві. А друга хвиля банківської кризи вимірюється у часовому інтервалі - осінь 2009 р. Зрозуміло, що про іпотечне кредитування на якийсь час потрібно забути. Тобто, я вважаю, що суперечності між твердженнями немає.
Дякую Вам за активність!

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