Yevhen Pentsak's advice: "2 in 1" - anticrisis and pre-election packages twofer

Tags: life insurance, KD Life, investment portfolio, fund market, IMF, NBU, Yevhen Pentsak

Information background of the week: global stock indices are rising, there is optimistic prognosis about emerging markets, everybody is waiting for 13 May, when the IMF will announce a decision on the second tranche of the loan for Ukraine, commercial banks with the interim administration are staying in suspense, PUMB has announced a technical default on its bonds.

The drop of production in Ukraine for the first quarter equals 28.8% according to the data of National Bank. The government promised the IMF to review the budget in May. Imports fell, and the income from Government Customs Service fell together with it.

A poor grain harvest is expected in 2009, because farmers had no money for seeding and fertilizing the land. Therefore, we expect the rise in the prices on food products this fall. The money supply in 2009 will not grow as the fact of the Government's commitments to the IMF. The monetary base equals UAH 177 billion now, and there are plans to sell $ 7.5 billion from the National Bank reserves at the end of 2009. These money will be extracted from the base, but then 44 billion will attach on recapitalization of banks, only in case if it takes in general. These are brief news from the «front», from information web-sites.

But, in general, everything is not as bad. People are visiting villages, trying to find relatives or just offering help for «food»; others are restoring «channels» for earnings in Europe. «Smart» people are thinking how to collect money and where to invest them. Deposits will not go there until the recapitalization of banks will take place. Recapitalization will not take place until the second tranche of the IMF will appear.

At the Ukrainian stock market the situation remains unclear, besides eurobonds of Ukrainian issuers are growing all the time. Everybody is waiting to the next tranche of IMF credit. Let’s imagine for a moment that on the May 13, 2009 we will not get the tranche or its fate will postpone for an indefinite term. What will happen then? Everything will reverse the course:

stock market will fall, eurobonds also will fall suddenly, the situation in Ukraine will worsen to critical.

I do not exclude such a scenario. The IMF wants to make Ukraine obedient. In order to do so Ukraine has to promise a lot. And the cost of promise sounds good - $ 16,4 billion. But nobody want to be obedient because they need to gain electoral points. Therefore, in my opinion, the story with IMF credit tranches will be long continued.

We will not forget that besides financial risks, which can be hedged by financial instruments and diversification, there are many risks of not financial origin. I want to draw the attention of readers to our new partner, the insurance brokerage company «KD Life».If someone has a fairly risky way of life, travel a lot, especially by car, who has a happy family, then the purchase of life insurance policy will help to get rid of part of unpleasant risks.

One of the key benefits of the insurance company «KD Life» is a strong and clear coverage in case of a car accident. Life insurance has become compulsory in many countries. Corporate life insurance allows to cover not a person but a certain position, i.e. it serves as an additional incentive for workers to stay in the company for many years.

To advertise an insurance company is a thankless task, especially when the insurance giant AIG is making its rapid fall. Insurance companies exist to insure individuals and companies against risks. Insurance companies insure their big risks with the help of reinsurers. And who will re-insure reinsurers?

I suggest to keep the gold-currency portfolio in the following form:

  • 20% - in hryvnya,
  • 30% - in dollar,
  • 30% - in euro,
  • 20% - in cash or cashless gold ( gold has resumed its rise today after the fall last week, and now it reaches $ 900 per troy ounce).

I think that fluctuations in the dollar and euro rates against the hryvna will not appear until May 13, 2009.

«Life without ambiguity reminds the film, the ending of which is known in advance. In such a world it is easy to forget about unforeseen circumstances, thanks to which we feel the taste for life and receive a significant profit in the business and investment. Freedom of the will is the most valuable human asset. It seems to me that the best world would be a world similar to that in which we live, the one in which life mostly reminds bridge or poker than roulette. That is the essence of risk management», - writes Peter Bernstein in his famous work Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.

So let us enjoy life in time of the global financial crisis and let’s be grateful to the fate that we are given an opportunity to experience such an element in our unpredictable lives!

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See also:

Мысли среди недели: индуктивные и дедуктивные методы исследования фондовых рынков

Очень часто мне приходится дискутировать о применимости тех или иных финансовых теорий к текущему анализу рынков, осуществление на его основе прогнозов и инвестиционных решений. Еще чаще мне приходилось наблюдать за спорами теоретиков и практиков на финансовом фундаменте. Меня всегда удивляло, почему они спорят? Ученые и исследователи используют общепринятые модели, описанные во всех классических учебниках, их знает каждый магистр по финансам. Почему выводы этих моделей не нравятся практикам?

Comments:

Alexandr 06/05/2009 15:59

Євген, доброго дня. Як вважаєте, якщо транш не дадуть - це вплине на курс доллара?

pentsak@kmbs.com.ua 06/05/2009 19:11

Доброго дня, Олександре! звичайно, якщо транш не дадуть або відкладуть, то ринок зреагує миттєво, і долар зросте. Ймовірність невелика, але існує. Я думаю, що гра буде йти на величину траншу. Сьогодні уряд почав вигравати м"язами - переглядати бюджет не будемо і так все йде набагато краще, ніж планувалось. Тобто, це початок нового етапу гри. Краще вимагати більше і отримати те, чого хотів. Подивимось, я не думаю, що в МВФ "лопухи" сидять. Сьогодні Альфа банк оголосив про проблему з погашенням купону по євробондах, бо не зміг придбати валюти на міжбанку. До кінця травня передбачається ще декілька великих корпоративних погашень. Якщо вони відбудуться, то завалять ринок і долар піде вгору. Проте борги можуть реструктуруватись. Насправді, проблем не зменшилось - вони лише відсунулись на якийсь час.

Matros 12/05/2009 12:32

День добрий.
Транш дають. Тож, поки що відкладемо описаний іище сценарій? Як на довго відкладемо?
До речі, долар почав трохи дешевшати ще до звістки про транш.

Volodymyr 12/05/2009 14:08

Наше "вилизане-вимучене" сальдо зовнішної торгівлі, це лише гарна цифра. Підприємства повинні гасити валютні борги перед іноземними позичальниками, а валюти в Україні наразі не додається. Позика МВФ дає нам трохи кисню, але ми мусимо вже садити свої зелені насадження, щоб мати чим дихати самостійно.

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